I've
had these thoughts for a while, but I haven't made any effort to write them
down. They kinda came out of me in a reply to a friend on a facebook thread, so
here they are:
Based
on what i'm seeing in battleground states, I pretty confident that Trump will
lose. My concern is that he will not concede if he loses. In the same way that
he set things up back in 2016 talking about election rigging - he's doing it
all over again now.
1.
What troubles me is how he has managed to polarize voting methods. Republicans
in battleground states are overwhelmingly planning to vote in person on 11/3,
while democrats are planning to vote by mail.
This
is setting up a the scenario where Trump is ahead when polls close but loses a
week later after absentee ballots are counted in key states like MI, FL, OH,
WI, NC, VA, PA etc. He will claim victory and then claim that the election is
being stolen from him on 11/10.
We
will see demands for recounts and we will see multiple lawsuits across states
calling into question the validity of mail-in ballots. I'm also sure that we
will see actual attempts to tamper with the mail-in process in democrat leaning
districts. Mailboxes will be destroyed and mail carriers will be bribed. I
think there will be widescale civil unrest - mostly from all 2a nuts. They will
descend on state capitals with their guns to essentially demand the outcome
they want. They (these trump loyalists) view a country without strong
republican leadership as an in-group existential crisis.
Ultimately
in this scenario - i think Biden will assume the white house on inauguration
day and Trump will be escorted out by the military. He will never concede. He
will say something similar to what Stacey Abrams said after "losing"
to Kemp (or not - since he is too much of a malignant narcissist to do anything
that would benefit the country but not him directly)
Because
Trump only cares about himself - i'm truly worried about what he will legally
do in his lame duck 2 months. My guess is that he will do things to ingratiate
himself with leaders around the world so that he can continue to enrich himself
on the back end. Trump tower moscow et al still have to get built.
I
think there is hope for our country in republicans abandoning trump. If he
loses *not* in typical dem vs repub fashion, but in extra special dem v repub
AND repub v repub fashion, it has the potential to nullify any arguments Trump
has about unfairness. he's only in power now bc of the republican party. If the
revolt finally comes (which would directly translate to an election day
trouncing) - things will go more smoothly
2. I
think our nation will look like venzuela if trump is reelected (not
economically). Trump will be maduro to biden's gauido. Our democracy will face
a legitimacy crisis as the plurality/potential majority of voters
reject the legitimacy of Trump and significant parts of the federal government.
Protests will be unending. #NeverTrump wont be a hashtag, it will be action.
Possibly very violent.
Trump
repeatedly saying and acting out the fact that he is only the president of his
base and not the united states coupled with voter suppression as a national
republican strategy will come to a head. These facts wont be the secret
knowledge of political nerds - they will be the general knowledge of the
populace and the ppl will respond accordingly.
The
insurrection act may be legitimately enacted this time around. I don't know
fully what to expect here - but looking at other countries around the world
that have dealt with authoritarian/fascist leaders, i don't think it will go
well.
There's
a chance that we could find ourselves starting the country all over again.
Like...writing a new constitution...but this would necessitate some level of
polarization deescalation - and a desire for country over and above any
particular political party.
I'm
really nervous for this country. Jesus is my hope.
