Two post 2020 election scenarios

I've had these thoughts for a while, but I haven't made any effort to write them down. They kinda came out of me in a reply to a friend on a facebook thread, so here they are:

Based on what i'm seeing in battleground states, I pretty confident that Trump will lose. My concern is that he will not concede if he loses. In the same way that he set things up back in 2016 talking about election rigging - he's doing it all over again now.

1. What troubles me is how he has managed to polarize voting methods. Republicans in battleground states are overwhelmingly planning to vote in person on 11/3, while democrats are planning to vote by mail.

This is setting up a the scenario where Trump is ahead when polls close but loses a week later after absentee ballots are counted in key states like MI, FL, OH, WI, NC, VA, PA etc. He will claim victory and then claim that the election is being stolen from him on 11/10.

We will see demands for recounts and we will see multiple lawsuits across states calling into question the validity of mail-in ballots. I'm also sure that we will see actual attempts to tamper with the mail-in process in democrat leaning districts. Mailboxes will be destroyed and mail carriers will be bribed. I think there will be widescale civil unrest - mostly from all 2a nuts. They will descend on state capitals with their guns to essentially demand the outcome they want. They (these trump loyalists) view a country without strong republican leadership as an in-group existential crisis.

Ultimately in this scenario - i think Biden will assume the white house on inauguration day and Trump will be escorted out by the military. He will never concede. He will say something similar to what Stacey Abrams said after "losing" to Kemp (or not - since he is too much of a malignant narcissist to do anything that would benefit the country but not him directly)

Because Trump only cares about himself - i'm truly worried about what he will legally do in his lame duck 2 months. My guess is that he will do things to ingratiate himself with leaders around the world so that he can continue to enrich himself on the back end. Trump tower moscow et al still have to get built.

I think there is hope for our country in republicans abandoning trump. If he loses *not* in typical dem vs repub fashion, but in extra special dem v repub AND repub v repub fashion, it has the potential to nullify any arguments Trump has about unfairness. he's only in power now bc of the republican party. If the revolt finally comes (which would directly translate to an election day trouncing) - things will go more smoothly

2. I think our nation will look like venzuela if trump is reelected (not economically). Trump will be maduro to biden's gauido. Our democracy will face a legitimacy crisis as the plurality/potential majority of voters reject the legitimacy of Trump and significant parts of the federal government. Protests will be unending. #NeverTrump wont be a hashtag, it will be action. Possibly very violent.

Trump repeatedly saying and acting out the fact that he is only the president of his base and not the united states coupled with voter suppression as a national republican strategy will come to a head. These facts wont be the secret knowledge of political nerds - they will be the general knowledge of the populace and the ppl will respond accordingly.

The insurrection act may be legitimately enacted this time around. I don't know fully what to expect here - but looking at other countries around the world that have dealt with authoritarian/fascist leaders, i don't think it will go well.

There's a chance that we could find ourselves starting the country all over again. Like...writing a new constitution...but this would necessitate some level of polarization deescalation - and a desire for country over and above any particular political party.

I'm really nervous for this country. Jesus is my hope.

Loving Others

Was finishing 1 John 4 this morning and this came to mind for me as a way to think about the text - specifically God's command that we love others.

Loving others is a commandment from God.

From the parable of the Good Samaritan in Luke 10:25, we know that one of the ways that we are called to love our brother/neighbor is to be merciful and to give generously to those in need.

There is a mindset that says we shouldn't be merciful & generous bc SOMEONE SOMEWHERE will take advantage of love expressed in this way.

This kind of disposition misses the fact that God has been generous to us and abundantly merciful.

Additionally, God's commandment isn't "don't get taken advantage of". He gives "talents" that they may be PUT TO WORK (read: put in a position where there is risk of someone taking advantage), not buried in a place that minimizes risk.

The servant who buried the talent in Matthew 25:13 was cast into "outer darkness". At the heart of his transgression was a misunderstanding of who God is. Does how we love or don't love others show that we misunderstand God and how he loves us?

If we view ourselves as deserving of God's mercy and generosity, we will not love those who we deem to be undeserving. Such a disposition is far removed from the heart of God. The essence of the gospel is that "while we were yet sinners (read: undeserving), Christ died for us" (Romans 5:8).